Saturday, April 04, 2009

Ontario PC Leadership Prediction

Here are my predictions for the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party leadership race as it stands now.

Randy Hillier will drop out of the race and endorse Frank Klees before the vote.

Christine Elliott will endorse Tim Hudak shortly thereafter.

Tim Hudak will win the leadership of the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party.

The social conservatives will rally around Klees, and the blue Tory base will rally around Hudak. The moderates will support Elliott, but will go to Hudak to stop Klees.

(A little tidbit - during the 2004 PC leadership vote, I chose Frank Klees as my second choice to prevent a Jim Flaherty win. Jim's anti-Toronto rhetoric drove me around the bend. So, take it with a grain of salt when I say moderate conservatives would try to stop Klees)

Still early, I know ... but, I don't think it's going to shake out much differently even if some others decide to step into the race. I'd likely still predict a Tim Hudak vs Frank Klees finale.


Anonymous said...

Help us all... another Harris!

Jim (Progressive Right) said...

I would have gone back into the trenches had Elizabeth Witmer declared a bid for the leadership.

Truth be told, most Ontario Tories are of the moderate, centrist stripe, despite the claims made by Common Sense Revolutionaries. Tim Hudak will have to soften his image to secure those votes -- and bringing Christine Elliott into the camp will help.