Monday, April 14, 2008

My Bad, Part 2

Well, Nik Nanos has released the latest poll numbers [PDF] for Ontario. Some have theorized that the federal Conservative attacks on Ontario were made to help benefit the Progressive Conservatives.

Liberals - 45% (+2.77%)
Progressive Conservatives - 30% (-1.64%)
NDP - 14% (-2.76%)
Green - 10% (+1.97%)

The number in parentheses is the change from what the party received in the October 2007 general election. It almost appears the NDP are going to the Liberals, and the Progressive Conservatives are going to the Greens.

Once again, well played, everyone.

[Previously]

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

I don't know anyone, Conservative, Liberal, NDP, Green or non-committed, who thought the Flaherty-Harper attacks on Ontario would help Conservatives in the short-term. Most people think this attack was meant to save Flaherty-Harper's butts in the event of a strong economic downturn in Ontario and the resulting federal shortfall which would make Flaherty-Harper's fiscal management look bad after all the years of big surplusses.

Don't you think Flaherty-Harper want to be able to point the finger at Ontario if it is shown their tax-cut and record spending style of fiscal management has left Ottawa in a weak position if the Ontario economy heads south?

Jim said...

Don't you think Flaherty-Harper want to be able to point the finger at Ontario if it is shown their tax-cut and record spending style of fiscal management has left Ottawa in a weak position if the Ontario economy heads south?

I don't entirely disagree with that theory.

But, people are not stupid. The Ontario Liberals are perceived to be spending more on social services and are perceived to be correcting the mess the previous PC government left behind, which Ontarians like.

So, first off, the federal government is attacking popular provincial policy.

Further, no one is going to blame an economic downturn (which the media reminds us all started in the States) on increased social service spending. Not a single one.

Thirdly, Jim Flaherty is likely not the best spokesman for an attack on Ontario's fiscal management ability.

Whatever the strategy, it backfired. And, huge.

Anonymous said...

Yes, all good points you make.