Monday, January 07, 2008

It's 2004 All Over Again, Almost

I do not know if the following post will make much sense because I am still relying on a very detailed and still highly confidential patented thought process.

I was taking a look at the results of the Harris/Decima survey, reported by the Canadian Press. In it, it says that in a hypothetical Parliament, the seat breakdown representing current Canadian preferences goes as follows:
Liberal — 111 seats
Conservative — 95 seats
NDP — 46 seats
Bloc — 31 seats
Green — 25 seats

If you take the results of the 2004 general election and apply the popular vote in a proportional manner, you get the following breakdown.

Liberal — 113 seats
Conservative — 91 seats
NDP — 48 seats
Bloc — 38 seats
Green — 13 seats

What's striking is that these poll results nearly match the government Canadians voted for in 2004 as opposed to the government they elected in 2004. For supporters of electoral reform, this seems a clear indication that Canadians want their votes to truly count.

Now, just to make sure I didn't have a fluke, the results of the 2006 general election applied proportionally come out differently, but similar in one respect.

Conservative — 112 seats
Liberal — 93 seats
NDP — 54 seats
Bloc — 32 seats
Green — 12 seats

For Liberal supporters right now, it could be argued that Canadians may have changed their mind about electing a minority Stephen Harper Conservative government and may have preferred another minority Paul Martin Liberal government, since they've gone back to almost exactly the same vote totals as 2004.

But, as the results of the 2006 election show, it's more likely they want about 110-115 seats for the governing party - Liberals or Conservatives - with the opposition party at about 90 - 95. They also want the NDP to hold the balance of power, and they want Green politicians in parliament.

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