So what's yourr take, you think John can cut taxes, increase healthcare spending and balance the books, or are we looking at another bend over and trust me Politican (which really disappoints me, I was holding on to hope with John Tory)
This is in somewhat a rough form as I'm trying to pound it out.
The Progressive Conservatives have indicated they would roll back the health premium over a 4 year period.
The Progressive Conservatives are basing their projections on Toward 2025: Assessing Ontario's Long-Term Outlook.
This is what the Ontario Liberals said in that report:
Total revenue is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 4.6 per cent over the 2005-06 to 2009-10 period, while annual growth in total spending is projected to average 3.5 per cent over this period.
Actual revenues for 2005-2006 were 84,225 million based upon:
1. higher than expected tax revenues, including higher revenues from personal income tax returns due to stronger-than-forecast wage and salaries growth, higher corporate tax returns and higher revenues from the electricity sector, and
2. the impact of the consolidation of broader public sector organizations - specifically school boards, hospitals and colleges
In short, higher tax revenues from wage and salary growth, corporate taxes and electricity sectors - plus finding efficiencies in the public sector. Remember, they're evil.
So, I will go under the assumption that revenues will increase by 4.6%, and spending will increase by 3.5%. Assume too that it's a straight 1/4 reduction in the health premium over each year.
In 2005-2006, actual revenues were 84,225 (including the 2,600 million health premium) and actual expenditures were 83,939. A difference of 286 million.
- For 2006-2007, revenues will be 87,330 million, and expenditures will be 86,877 million. A difference of 453 million.
Here's the math for the first one:
(84,225 - 2,600) x 4.6% increase + (2,600 x 1/4 decrease)
= 85,380 + 1,950
83,939 x 3.5% increase
- 2007-2008, revenues will be 90,607 (1,300 from health premium) and expenditures will be 89,918. Difference is 690 million.
- 2008-2009, revenues will be 94,605 (650 from health premium) and expenditures will be 93,065. Difference is 1,001 million.
- 2009-2010, revenues will be 97,712 (0 from health premium) and expenditures will be 96,322. Difference is 1,391 million.
Spending on health is projected to grow on average by 5.1 per cent annually during the 2005-06 to 2009-10 period. Spending on education is projected to grow on average by four per cent annually and spending on social services by 3.4 per cent annually.
On health, the Progressive Conservatives are committed to the 5.1% spend to 2010, going up to 5.2% to 2011, and 5.3% to 2012 [Improving Healthcare].
So, can we increase spend and cut the health tax? I think so. If the Liberal projections are incorrect, maybe not. I trust John to make the right decision in that case.
I don't trust Dalton McGuinty to make the right decision.
Now, it's 10:46, and I'm willing to be corrected.
Revenues and expenses are projected to grow at a similar pace over the 2010-11 to 2014-15 period.
I think it's still doable, and if I can alleviate the math-induced headache, I'll take another run.
Updated x 2: Oh, wait. No, I didn't. I think I got it right.
Updated x 3: Fixed a typo.