Tuesday, May 15, 2007


I read Stephen Taylor's political prediction regarding the federal NDP and thought I would comment.
I'll make the lofty prediction that we may see David Miller take a shot at the job within the next year following a grassroots leadership challenge rooted within the rank-and-file of the party. Given the failing fortunes of Canada's social democratic party, we may not see many other "top-tier" candidates go for the job. We may even see Layton run in the same leadership race in such a scenario.

While I think it's in the realm of possibility that David Miller would take a shot at the job, I don't think the federal NDP will grow with another extroverted municipal politician from the city of Toronto. My guess would be it would be better to have a rural, Western politician take a stab at the top job - say, from Saskatchewan or Manitoba. Exactly who that is, I don't know.

Now, I'd like to contrast this with my earlier prediction with regards to the coming Ontario provincial election:

I predict that if Howard Hampton resigns as leader of the Ontario NDP, Olivia Chow will go after it and she'll win. She's got face and name recognition. It would mean for the first time spouses would lead the NDP at the same time (at different governing levels, of course). She would likely gain the support of Toronto mayor David Miller and all those who supported Jack Layton in his bid for the federal NDP.

What I think the Ontario NDP needs is, funnily enough, an extroverted municipal politician from the city of Toronto. If that were the case, with the exception of the bluer neighbourhoods going to the Progressive Conservatives, Toronto would be painted orange.


The JF said...

Actually, for the federal NDP (because I agree on Olivia Chow for Ontario NDP leader), I believe the ideal leader would be a francophone, preferably a francophone outside Quebec, either an Acadian, or a Franco-Ontarian or Franco-Manitoban would be great. And I'm not just saying that because I'm Acadian, I'm saying that because the NDP has yet to have a single francophone leader, and surprise, it's yet to have a single seat in Quebec. Yvon Godin would be interesting, but I'm not sure if he's the man to lead a party.

A First Nation would also be very interesting, but even less likely than a francophone.

Jim (Progressive Right) said...
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Jim (Progressive Right) said...

That's not a bad idea, but why outside of Quebec?

What about Thomas Mulcair?

The JF said...

Thomas Mulcair would indeed be very interesting, although he is an Anglo-Quebecer, he's still very close to francophone Quebec society and I get the feeling he'd make an excellent job.

But about why outside of Quebec, just because there hasn't been francophone outside Quebec leaders at the federal level either, so it would be a first, and I think FHQs (Franco-hors-Quebec) would be more likely to embrace and rally around such a candidate, but such a candidate would still be able to woo Quebecers and to more easily understand Quebec culture on a personal level. And actually, it would be great if such a candidate could sell to Quebecers a vision of a pan-Canadian francophonie rather than just keeping with the vision that there's only Quebec in all of North America that's French.

Oh, and an FHQ would not be Yet-Another-Leader-From-Quebec(tm), which I mean, they've got great leaders, but Westerners would probably appreciate a Franco-Manitoban much, much more than another guy from Montreal.

Anonymous said...

measlMiller has let his membership with the NDP lapse. I doubt if it was to look non-partisan because he is still a dipper. I think he has distanced himself from the party permanently.