One of the arguments against implementing mixed member proportional is that traditionally "fringe parties" will receive representation in the legislature.
An individual elected under this system will either have to have:
- Won a local riding under first past the post.
- Been named to a a party's list. The party as a whole must garner 3% of the popular vote to have a candidate selected off the list. In this case, 3% of the vote would result in 3 seats (3% of 129 seats).
I'm assuming that opponents to MMP, and favouring FPTP (first-past-the-post), accept that a so-called fringe party candidate could conceivably win a local riding.
The notion then is that 3% of the population represents fringe voters. Using the 2006 census, the population of Ontario is 12,160,282. 3% of that number is 364,808 - or approximately 3 ridings (assuming about 100,000 people per electoral district). To equate the "legitimacy", a party would have to win likely 10 local ridings (or say about 35,000 votes in each) to attain this popular level of support. That's the current representation the NDP has in the Ontario legislature.According to the Environics poll, the Green Party of Ontario is polling at 2% and is considered the least "fringey" of the non-traditional parties. If the Environics poll holds true, the Green Party would likely still not hold any seats as they wouldn't pass the 3% threshold.