Tuesday, April 17, 2007

SES : Quebec's Second Choice After BQ

An SES poll indicates the NDP are poised to gain support in Quebec if the BQ disappears (or, I suppose, if Quebeckers can be convinced the BQ is irrelevant):
In a nutshell, the absence of the BQ would likely move the Conservatives into majority territory. They would lead in Quebec with the support of 41% of voters followed by the NDP and the Liberals who would be statistically tied (23% and 21% respectively). BQ committed voters would move to the Conservatives (who pick up 13 points), the NDP (who pick up 10 points), the Green Party (who pick up 8 points) and the Liberals (who pick up 3 points). Factoring the margin of accuracy for the sub sample the discernable movement is to the Tories and the NDP and to a lesser extent to the Greens.

As one commenter pointed out at the SES site, it's almost as though the Liberals need the BQ to maintain relevance in the province. This poll certainly suggests that the Liberal Party has little chance to sway Bloc voters to come under their "big tent".

Update: I just had a thought. I wonder if St├ęphane Dion would be open to not running a Liberal candidate in a riding with a lot of soft BQ support? Those BQ voters who normally vote BQ to avoid a Liberal win may not feel compelled to park their vote with the Bloc.

That would surely convince me that he's putting principle ahead of partisanship.

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